Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 752.410344 849.025117 956.869804 1086.838936 1240.105003 1416.179616 1635.326854
2025-03-23 614.620775 743.325346 900.526803 1109.441480 1384.054403 1738.878894 2242.450047
2025-03-30 521.357796 656.274393 830.004348 1074.996262 1419.773860 1900.838373 2647.789599
2025-04-06 455.667604 591.629808 774.098732 1043.928646 1445.528679 2043.427380 3047.677048
2025-04-13 403.682467 537.256796 722.594120 1007.551799 1452.018240 2151.577578 3411.080967
2025-04-20 381.275921 520.411441 720.200963 1040.159965 1564.806028 2442.239807 4150.350438
2025-04-27 356.994126 497.723794 705.761663 1050.828828 1642.001354 2686.015521 4870.652888
2025-05-04 336.764651 478.671019 694.105613 1063.275120 1722.464399 2949.329244 5707.399248
2025-05-11 318.250391 460.268230 681.122342 1071.040609 1794.604762 3210.056300 6622.807902
2025-05-18 307.693438 453.103447 685.002202 1107.579957 1924.947319 3613.880580 8022.003820
2025-05-25 295.379569 441.924496 680.898656 1128.879757 2028.669820 3984.815089 9492.895952
2025-06-01 281.019718 426.164042 667.417358 1130.905465 2093.181070 4282.482076 10893.510545
2025-06-08 265.441862 407.744392 648.625354 1122.475141 2138.584512 4557.198149 12401.611544
2025-06-15 255.364679 397.931958 644.249299 1141.965434 2249.650005 5029.510425 14858.702373
2025-06-22 238.551468 375.232266 614.571586 1106.854864 2230.072651 5152.485254 16131.512062
2025-06-29 223.691777 354.949586 587.701322 1074.522160 2211.922621 5276.107998 17498.579193
2025-07-06 209.440086 334.851854 559.669875 1036.805488 2175.029469 5337.900576 18660.810074
2025-07-13 205.267611 332.468128 564.818528 1070.625132 2322.297463 5998.744037 23124.209495
2025-07-20 198.654599 325.183169 559.894646 1081.693812 2413.241652 6514.246091 27402.115882
2025-07-27 192.705651 318.715413 556.012566 1094.607454 2511.815557 7092.177553 32723.491345
2025-08-03 186.639377 311.633088 550.323736 1102.665350 2598.750366 7663.450565 38794.844052
2025-08-10 183.924541 310.689725 556.941766 1140.588390 2779.890434 8668.338328 49694.505282
2025-08-17 179.789893 306.746024 557.030011 1162.700676 2919.083831 9573.647884 61753.010524